Elections and Conspiracism

Joanne M. Miller, professor in the Department of Political Science & International Relations and the Department of Psychological & Brain Sciences, contributed “Losers’ Conspiracy: Elections and Conspiracism” (Political Behavior, July 2025), along with authors Christina E. Farhart and Kyle L. Saunders.

The study investigates how electoral outcomes shape individuals’ propensity toward conspiratorial thinking, focusing on whether being on the losing side of an election increases belief in conspiracy theories. Drawing on five nationally representative U.S. pre- and post-election panel surveys conducted between 2016 and 2020, the researchers examine how shifts in political status, from “winner” to “loser,” influence general conspiracism over time.

Across four of the five studies, the authors find that election losers consistently become more conspiratorial following the announcement of results. In contrast, election winners show either no change or a slight decline in conspiratorial beliefs, underscoring the role of political loss in triggering motivated reasoning and defensive belief systems.

The findings suggest that conspiracy beliefs can serve as a form of psychological coping, a way for partisans to protect their sense of self and group esteem in the face of defeat by attributing losses to external manipulation or corruption rather than voter rejection. However, this coping mechanism carries significant democratic risks: When widespread, it can erode public trust in institutions, delegitimize electoral outcomes, and normalize skepticism toward democratic processes.