8:43 p.m., Oct. 15, 2010----According to a new University of Delaware National Agenda opinion poll, a solid majority of debate viewers believe Democratic Senate hopeful Chris Coons won the Delaware Debate 2010 with Republican candidate Christine O'Donnell, held Oct. 13 in Mitchell Hall at the University of Delaware. The findings suggest O'Donnell did not make any significant inroads among the Delaware electorate.

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Just before Wednesday night's U.S. Senate debate, a UD Center for Political Communication poll of likely voters showed Coons with a 21 point lead, 54 percent to 33 percent, over O'Donnell.

The new National Agenda poll, conducted by phone during the hours after the debate, reached 891 of the same likely voters polled just before the debate, to determine if any views were changed by the nationally televised discussion.

Of those likely voters, 813 watched the debate: 77 percent said they had watched the “entire” debate and 14 percent said they had watched only the “first part” of the debate, about half the 90-minute program.

Regardless of whom the voters plan to vote for, 56 percent said Coons won the debate and 29 percent said O'Donnell won the debate, and only 2 percent of the viewers said they “switched” their vote. Coons also was identified as the winner by most of the demographic groups in the poll; both males and females, all age categories and all racial and ethnic groups thought Coons won over O'Donnell.

Among the viewers who were polled, 21 percent say they were undecided before the debate. These were primarily younger (18-34) voters (33 percent), Republicans (25 percent) and Independents (29 percent), and moderates (25 percent). Of those previously undecided voters, 77 percent say they now support one of the candidates; 23 percent remain undecided. Among those who now support a candidate the votes are split almost evenly between O'Donnell (51 percent) and Coons (49 percent).

The CPC postdebate poll is overseen by David C. Wilson, assistant professor of political science and a public opinion specialist who serves as the center's coordinator of Public Opinion Initiatives. Wilson says, “In a largely Democratic state, O'Donnell needs all the Republican support she can get, but the numbers are not in her favor.”

Wilson noted, “Among those who saw the debate at the University of Delaware, Coons not only won likely voters, but he's also made strong inroads with moderates and Independents. These are crucial to O'Donnell's ability to win the general election.”

“Coons even made inroads among Republicans in Delaware," he said. "After the debate, O'Donnell still lacks support among Democrats, who make up the vast majority of Delaware voters.”

The postdebate polls shows that moderates thought Coons won over O'Donnell by 46 points, 67 percent to 21 percent; Independents gave Coons the win by 20 points, 52 percent to 32 percent; and while 80 percent of Democrats said Coons won the debate, only 55 percent of Republicans say O'Donnell won the debate. Twenty-six percent of Republicans gave Coons the win after the debate, compared to 10 percent of Democrats giving a win to O'Donnell.

The Center for Political Communications polls are supported by a grant from the Conrad N. Hilton Foundation through the CPC. Research methodology, questionnaire design and fieldwork for this survey were completed in coordination with SurveyUSA of Clifton, N.J.

Survey results are available online.

Methodology

Results for the UD Center for Political Communication's “Postdebate Poll” are based on automated landline telephone follow-up interviews conducted after 9 p.m. on Oct. 13, 2010, with 891 likely voters in Delaware. Respondent households were originally selected at random, using Random Digit Dialing (RDD) procedures. The original poll yielded 2,843 registered voters, and 2,355 likely voters, and 1,113 who said they would watch some or all of the debate. The 1,113 expected viewers served as the population for the follow-up poll. The Margin of Error for the debate winner question is plus or minus 3.5 percent; thus, one can say with 95 percent confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls. The statistical results presented are weighted to correct known demographic discrepancies in age, gender and race.