Climate change issues subject of UDARF talk
John Byrne discusses climate change at the March 5 UDARF meeting.
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12:08 p.m., March 10, 2009----John Byrne, director of the University of Delaware's Center for Energy and Environmental Policy, told a group of retired UD faculty members that dealing with climate change will require reducing energy demands, increasing the use of renewable energy and the creation of a workable energy policy at the national level.

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A member of the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize-winning Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Byrne made his remarks during a University of Delaware Association of Retired Faculty (UDARF) luncheon meeting, held March 4 in Clayton Hall.

“What I thought I would do is give you just a small picture of what the issues are, and the underlying science of this problem,” Byrne said. “Then, I will take you to a set of solutions that we have and some of the problems that we are going to face when we try to implement some of these solutions.”

Byrne said the issue of climate change is a fairly unusual problem and one that would be impossible to address without the use of advanced science.

“In order to get to the problem of climate change, you have to model vast numbers of centuries in any millennium to get at the picture itself,” Byrne said. “We develop our models in order for them to be able to calibrate and predict fairly well those long stretches of several hundreds of thousands of years of climate change in order for us to then look at and examine what would be the possible issues we face today.”

Recent observations in the Antarctic, including the 2002 collapse of the Larsen B ice shelf -- which was about the size of the state of Delaware -- have changed the way scientists think about how ice melts, Byrne said.

“From 1973-2003, we've lost approximately 20 percent by area and approximately 60 percent by volume of sea ice in the Arctic,” Byrne said. “I guess these are phenomena that could happen in long stretches of time, but this is so rapid that folks are quite concerned about what the implications are.”

Such studies, including one on Greenland from 1992-2005, have caused many in the scientific community to believe that the problem might be worse than what had previously been forecast.

Things are not going to change anytime soon, Byrne said, because a molecule of carbon dioxide remains in the atmosphere for anywhere from 50-200 years.

“The answer is that you need to reduce your greenhouse emissions 60 percent below 1990 levels, and you have roughly until mid-century to do it, given the lifetime of the molecule,” Byrne said.

Because about 80 percent of greenhouse gases come from fossil fuel combustion, one of the things that must be done, Byrne said, is to cut back substantially on the amount of such fuels used for energy production.

“Basically, we need a ski-slope experience, a serious reduction if we are going to hit our target of a 60 percent emissions cut by 2050,” Byrne said. “The problem is only going to get more difficult; it is not going to get easier. We have to figure out how to act, and act quickly over a long period of time.”

According to projected carbon dioxide emissions to be released in the next 25 years to produce electric power, more CO2 will be added to the atmosphere in this time frame than the amount produced in the previous 250 years, Byrne said.

“This is a big problem, and it is a problem that the energy system has to address,” Byrne said. “As a result, one of the things you are going to hear a lot more about is the need to change that energy system from a so-called non-renewable, fossil fuel-based system to a system that uses renewable energy.”

Byrne said it was ironic that countries like Japan use renewable energy technology developed at the University of Delaware, while the United States has no general policy at the national level concerning the development and use of such technology.

“While the national policy has not been strong in the United States, 33 states have passed laws that, as a condition of the terms of the sale of electricity in their jurisdiction, a certain percentage must come from renewable sources,” Byrne said. “Delaware has one of the more progressive statutes in the country. We have a specific reservation that 2 percent of renewable energy must come from solar electric technology.”

In noting the University of Delaware has been designated as a national center of excellence for solar technology and that the Class of 2008 gave its senior gift for the development of a carbon footprint analysis, Byrne said the University is considering using solar panels on the roofs of the Trabant University Center and the Perkins Student Center to take both buildings off the power grid.

While the development and use of renewable energy sources such as solar and wind power will continue to increase, the use of such energy sources alone will not be enough to reduce emission levels to targeted goals by the year 2050, Byrne said.

“Briefly, the best estimates we have from the International Panel for Climate Change about what has to be done is that we need to take out about 24 gigatons of CO2 by 2030, and the most likely sources for doing that in the near term are energy efficiency and energy conservation,” Byrne said. “Translated, this means that we need to use a whole lot less energy than we do now and still find happiness in our lives. Only if we work on both the supply side and the demand side can we possibly solve this problem.”

Advocating the use of market-based policy such as that in use in California since the 1970s, Byrne said such a strategy would encourage consumers to chose alternative energy systems and more energy efficient household appliances and heating and cooling systems.

“Yes, it can work. California has the best policy in the country for doing this kind of thing,” Byrne said. “It is very much market driven and incentive driven for that purpose. They provide tax advantages and other things to help people do the right thing.”

Energy conservation and the efficient use of renewable energy sources make sense from and individual and large investor standpoint, Byrne said.

“Energy efficiency has historically beat -- in terms of greater returns on investment -- the stock market and the bond market,” Byrne said. “It is a very good financial strategy, but we just have not had in this country a national policy to make this work.”

Byrne closed his talk by saying that future generations will judge this one by how it acted in addressing the issue of climate change and the need to reduce the level of harmful greenhouse gases in the atmosphere by the target date of 2050 and beyond.

“Our grandchildren are watching,” Byrne said. “The decisions we make will affect what kind of air they breathe and what kind of life they have.”

Article by Jerry Rhodes
Photo by Kathy Atkinson

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