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Latest poll on Delaware Senate, House races shows Democrats with commanding leads despite Tea Party Republican Effort

CONTACT: Andrea Boyle, University of Delaware media relations, 302-831-1421, aboyle@udel.edu

Newark, DE - Newark, DE – Four weeks before Election Day 2010, Delaware Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate Chris Coons holds a commanding 19-point lead over his Republican opponent, Christine O’Donnell. A new poll of 901 Delaware residents conducted by the University of Delaware’s non- partisan Center for Political Communication finds 49% supporting Coons and 30% supporting O’Donnell.

The poll reveals a large number of undecided Delawareans – 13%. Coons’ lead widens to 24 points when the probable decisions of undecided voters are taken into account for the poll’s final estimate, with Coons holding a 61% to 37% advantage. The poll also finds weaker emotional support for O’Donnell among her supporters than Coons has among his. The poll is the first released since long-time Republican incumbent Congressman Mike Castle announced he would not seek a write-in candidacy. Castle was defeated by O’Donnell in Delaware’s September 14 primary.
The UD poll also finds that Democratic Congressional candidate John Carney holds a 48% to 31% lead over Republican Glen Urquhart, with 16% undecided. When undecided registered voters are allocated, Carney leads 60% to 40%.

The “National Agenda Poll” is overseen by assistant professor of Political Science David C. Wilson, a public opinion specialist who serves as the Center’s Coordinator of Public Opinion Initiatives. The poll was conducted September 16-30, 2010 and has a margin of error of +4.1%.

The poll suggests that O’Donnell’s Tea Party-supported Republican primary win on September 14, transformed an almost certain Republican U.S. Senate seat to a likely Democratic win instead. O’Donnell’s primary victory thrust the Delaware Senate election into the national spotlight. O’Donnell and Coons are scheduled to face off in a formal debate at the University of Delaware on October 13. Carney and Urquhart square off in their debate this Wednesday, October 6 at the University.

Other highlights of the University of Delaware National Agenda Poll:

  • Coons shows strong support among pure independent voters in Delaware. When undecided voters are allocated independents favor Coons over O’Donnell by about 42 points (70% to 28%)
  • Coons shows stronger support among crossover voters - registered Republicans - than O’Donnell does among crossover Democrats. Registered Republicans and those who lean Republican favor O’Donnell over Coons 77% to 20%, but registered Democrats and Democratic leaners favor Coons 92% to 7%.
  • The poll suggests O’Donnell’s supporters have weaker emotional ties to their candidate. While two thirds (63%) of Coons’ Democratic supporters say they would be “very disappointed” if he lost the election, only one third (34%) of O’Donnell’s supporters say they would be “very disappointed” if she lost.
  • In the race for the House of Representatives, registered voters — which with undecided voters allocated — prefer Democrat John Carney over Republican Glenn Urquhart, 60% to 40%. Wilson says that unlike the Senate race, there is no significant difference in the emotional in- vestment between the House candidates . “If Carney lost the election,” Wilson reports, “32% of Delawareans say they would be very disappointed, and if Urquhart lost, 31% say they would be very disappointed.”
  • In the House race, while Carney garners a majority (58%) of support among pure independents, Urquhart, a first-time candidate relatively little known in the state, shows relatively strong num- bers with 42% support. Wilson suggests that while Carney is heavily favored among Independent independents who lean Democrat, the Democrat, has not solidified support among pure independents, and may have work to do to shore up his lead before election day; particularly in the Southern part of the state. Still, Wilson cautions, “non-leaning independents are a small group in the state and their turnout would have to be higher than usual to cover offset the current spread favoring Carney.”
  • As for crossover support, the National Agenda poll shows registered Republicans and leaners prefer Urquhart to Carney 81% to 19%, and registered Democrats and leaners prefer Carney to Urquhart 92% to 8%. Wilson says that means Carney has about 11% points more cross party support than Urquhart.
    These poll results mirror previous polls showing Coons and Carney with significant advantages over O’Donnell and Urquhart respectively, but Wilson notes, “as we continue to analyze the data we will be able to better analyze questions about why Democrats have such a strong gap in support.”

Wilson says since roughly two-thirds of the registered voters in Delaware are Democrats, and the same proportion mostly resides in the heavily Democratic northern county—the state’s largest county--( (New Castle County), the challenge for both O’Donnell and Urquhart is their ability to attract moderate and conservative Democratic and independent voters by moving to the ideological center while holding their base supporters who tend to be strongly conservative.

Center for Political Communication director Ralph Begleiter says the National Agenda Poll will continue to track significant trends and new developments in political communication this year and next. “Delaware has never had a regular, continuing public opinion poll,” says Begleiter, “and the University is committed to research and engaging students and the public in civic life. We want to further understand the opinions of Delawareans, and discover the effects of recent developments in social networking on political messaging at the local and national levels.”
The Center for Political Communications National Agenda Poll is supported by a grant from the Conrad N. Hilton Foundation through the CPC. Princeton Survey Research Associates International (PSRAI) conducted the poll, and the interviews were conducted in English by Princeton Data Source.

Methodology
Results for the UD Center for Political Communication’s “National Agenda Poll” are based on telephone interviews conducted September 16-30, 2010, with a random sample of 901 Delaware adults, aged 18 and older. Respondents were selected using random-digit-dial sampling procedures targeting both cell and landline phone extensions. Based on the total sample for the poll, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4.1 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls. Statistical results presented are weighted to correct known demographic discrepancies.

See the poll and results

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