FREC 444--Economics of Environmental Management
Travel Cost Models
The recreation travel-cost model is really a simple type of household
production model: households spend money and time to produce recreation
trips, where Q is an unpriced input to trip quality. Assuming trip costs
are incurred to access the site (and don't generate any utility directly),
the trip cost serves as a proxy for a site price.
Consider a really simple hypothetical case. Suppose there are three
concentric zones (A, B and C) around a recreation site with no entry fee:
Zone Population Visit Rate Total Trips Cost/Trip
A 10,000 2.5 25,000 $2
B 20,000 1.0 20,000 $4
C 30,000 0.5 15,000 $6
The site currently gets a total of 60,000 visits per year, with nobody
visiting from beyond zone C.
We assume visitation rates are solely determined by trip cost. Suppose
the site started charging a $2 entry fee. Residents of zone A would then
have a cost of $4 per trip, equivalent to the current trip cost for residents
of zone B. So they would cut back their visitation rates equivalently to
zone B's current rate of 1.0. And residents of zone B, facing an increased
trip cost of $6, would cut back their visitation rates to 0.5, equivalent
to the current visistation rate from zone C. We assume there would be no
visits from zone C, so under a $2 entry fee there would be 10,000 trips
from zone A and 10,000 trips from zone B, or 20,000 trips total.
Following the same logic, if the site entry fee were set at $4, you
would expect 5,000 trips from zone A only. And since we don't see any visitors
with trip costs of $6, we'll assume that's the site demand choke price.
So the site demand schedule would pass through these points:
Can you calculate the economic value (consumer surplus) of this site?
There are a number of variations on this method:
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We can analyze the relationship between visitation rate and cost/trip via
regression analysis, and use the predicted regression equation to calculate
aggregate site demand under any site price.
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We can analyze probabilities of individual trips rather than aggregate
trip frequencies from geographic zones. This usually requires the use of
discrete-choice regression procedures. Total site visits is determined
by both individuals' binary decisions (visit/don't visit) and individuals'
trip frequencies which are conditional on the decision to visit.
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An extension of this discrete-choice approach is the random-utility
model (RUM), in which observed site choices are treated as indexing
the relative utilities individuals derive from alternative sites. The analyst
estimates a discrete-choice model for each site as a function of site characteristics
and trip expenditures. The marginal rate of substitution between a site
quality index and trip expenditures represents a WTP measure for site quality.
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A hedonic travel-cost method decomposes trip expenditures into implicit
WTP measures for component attributes of sites.
The travel cost literature addresses various problems inherent in recreation
demand models:
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Trip costs should account for both money and time costs, but the valuation
(opportunity cost) of travel time is typically ill-defined. Researchers
often simply assume the value of travel time is some fraction of the recreationist's
wage rate.
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Some zones may have substitute sites which reduce visitation rates to the
site being analyzed.
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If the site is congested, a site fee will reduce visitation by less than
the model would predict, since any reduction in visitors improves site
quality (by reducing congestion) for the remaining users.
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Trips are assumed to be homogeneous, but may not be. How do we account
for multi-purpose or multi-day trips?