Regression Intro 1: Basic Micro Review
Economists often model economic relationships as linear functions.
These may be represented as lines
on graphs, or more compactly and usefully as mathematical
equations.
Economic research typically involves specifying some hypothesized
relationship
(as implied by theory) as a mathematical function, and then
testing this hypothesis against
real-world data. Print out this exercise
and try it!
-
We begin with a very basic demand hypothesis: consumption of some
market good Q declines as the price of Q rises, and increases as
the price falls. So we collect some market data to test this hypothesis:

|
Quantity
|
Price
|
|
15
|
$1.40
|
|
21
|
$1.25
|
|
35
|
$1.00
|
|
24
|
$1.10
|
|
22
|
$1.30
|
|
19
|
$1.20
|
|
11
|
$1.40
|
|
16
|
$1.45
|
|
26
|
$1.05
|
|
29
|
$0.90
|
|
38
|
$0.90
|
|
28
|
$1.05
|
Plot these data points on the graph. Notice that
these data are "noisy" like all market data. Nevertheless, the
scatter
does show an overall downward trend, which is consistent with our
hypothesis of an inverse relationship between quantity demanded and
price.
Use a straightedge to draw a line through these points that best represents
their overall trend. Extend this line straight to the vertical axis.
-
You can characterize this (inverse) demand or "willingness-to-pay" relationship
as a linear function of the form P = a0 + a1Q
where a0 is the vertical intercept and a1
is the slope ("rise" over "run," which will negative for a downward-sloping
function.) Derive the intercept and slope coefficients for this function:
P = _____ + ______QD
Now you have a predictive model of demand for Q. Suppose the market
supplies 10 more units of Q. How much will the
market
price have to fall to get consumers to buy these extra units?
-
Actually economists generally represent demand functions the other way
around, in the form Q = b0 + b1P. Determine
the values of b0 and b1 for the line
you have drawn through the data points. b0 is the horizontal
axis intercept and b1 is the "run" divided by the "rise"
(i.e., 1/ a1 from the inverse demand function you got
in the previous question). Derive the intercept and slope coefficients of
this function:
QD = _____ + _____P
-
Now plot these supply data by hand on a second graph, with Q on the horizontal
axis and P on the vertical axis:

|
Quantity
|
Price
|
|
36
|
$1.55
|
|
44
|
$1.95
|
|
25
|
$1.30
|
|
32
|
$1.29
|
|
13
|
$0.85
|
|
19
|
$1.25
|
|
22
|
$1.20
|
|
29
|
$1.35
|
|
41
|
$1.68
|
|
34
|
$1.41
|
Use a straightedge to draw the line through these points that best represents
their overall trend. Extend this line straight to the axis.
-
Determine the formula for this (inverse) supply or "willingness-to-sell"
function:
P = _____ + _____QS.
By how much does the price of Q have to increase in order to get producers
to supply 5 more units?
Determine the formula for the conventional supply function:
QS = _____ + B_____P.
If P falls by 40 cents, how much less will producers be willing to
sell?
-
The market equilibrium occurs where supply and demand schedules intersect.
You can determine this point graphically. Superimpose your supply and demand
schedules on one graph and visually determine the equilibrium price and
quantity:
PEQ = $_____; QEQ = $_____
Now solve for PEQ and QEQ mathematically (by
substitution).
Calculate the point elasticities of supply and demand at the market
equilibrium
point.
Enough basic micro theory review!
In the next exercise we'll let
the computer do the hard work.