FREC
240 Assignment #8 -- Resource Depletion
1. Suppose you own 20 units of a depletable resource (Q).
The cost of extracting and selling the resource is a constant $5 per
unit. The (inverse) demand for the resource is Pt = 20
- 0.2Qt where Qt is the amount you extract and
sell in time period t.
Your discount rate is r =
0.10.
If you want to maximize the present value of your profits from this
resource over two time periods, you would ...
maximize Profit = P0Q0
+ P1Q1/(1+r)
= (20 - 0.2Q0)Q0 + (20 - 0.2Q1)Q1/1.10
subject to Q0 + Q1 = 20
Set up the Lagrangean form of this maximization problem, take the first
partial derivatives with respect to Q0, Q1 and the Lagrangean
multiplier, set these equal to zero, and solve these three equations
for the optimal values of Q0, Q1 and the
multiplier.
Plugging Q0 and Q1 into the inverse demand
function, solve for P0 and P1.
Calculate (the present value of) your total profit over the two time
periods.
2. In this context, the Lagrangean multiplier R = [Pt
- C]/(1+r)t represents the present value of the
marginal profit (Pt - C) the owner gets from selling an
extra unit of the resource in any time period t. The economist Harold
Hotelling observed that in competitive markets for depletable
resources, the marginal profit tends to rise at the rate of discount
over time. Explain why this is likely to happen.
3. Suppose the total stock of Q is 1,000 units, distributed among
many sellers. If the market for this resource follows Hotelling's
rule, then the rent trajectory from today (t=0) to some future time of
depletion (t=T) looks like...
P0 - C = [P1 -
C]/(1+r) = [P2 - C]/(1+r)2 =
... = [PT-1 - C]/(1+r)T-1
= [PT - C]/(1+r)T
If the demand is Pt = 20 - 0.2Qt, C = $5 and r =
0.10, then in the final time
period, at the point of depletion when QT = 0 and PT
= $20, the marginal profit will be $20 - $5 =
$15. If the market follows Hotelling's rule, then the
marginal profit in the previous
period T-1 should be [PT-1 - $5] = $15/(1.10) from which you
can solve for PT-1 (= $18.64) and obtain QT-1
from the demand schedule (= 6.818 units). And in the next
previous period T-2 the marginal profit will be [PT-2 - $5]
= $15/(1.10)2 from which you can solve for PT-2
(= $17.40) and obtain QT-2 (= 19.835 units). And so
on....
In the first column of a spreadsheet, calculate this rent trajectory backwards from $15 in terminal time
period T toward the present. In the adjacent columns, calculate
the corresponding Pt and Qt values. In the
fourth column, calculate the cumulative stock of Q required to supply QT
+ QT-1 + QT-2 + ... from that time period
up to time T. Work your way down the rows of the spreadsheet
(backward in time) until cumulative stock requirement most closely
matches today's total stock of 1,000--this row represents "today."
What is today's marginal profit, P and Q? If you denote
this row as time period 0, how many years off is time period T?
Create an XY graph of the price and marginal profit trajectories
through time.
4. Suppose there is a new discovery of 500 additional units of
the resource. Work your way further down the spreadsheet until
the cumulative stock requirement most closely matches a stock of 1,500
units. What happens to "today's" marginal profit, P and Q?
How many years off is time period T now?