FREC 240 Assignment #8 -- Resource Depletion

1.  Suppose you own 20 units of a depletable resource (Q).   The cost of extracting and selling the resource is a constant $5 per unit.  The (inverse) demand for the resource is Pt = 20 - 0.2Qt where Qt is the amount you extract and sell in time period t.  Your discount rate is r = 0.10. 

If you want to maximize the present value of your profits from this resource over two time periods, you would ...
     maximize   Profit = P0Q0 + P1Q1/(1+r) = (20 - 0.2Q0)Q0 + (20 - 0.2Q1)Q1/1.10
     subject to Q0 + Q1 = 20

Set up the Lagrangean form of this maximization problem, take the first partial derivatives with respect to Q0, Q1 and the Lagrangean multiplier, set these equal to zero, and solve these three equations for the optimal values of Q0, Q1 and the multiplier.  
Plugging Q0 and Q1 into the inverse demand function, solve for P0 and P1
Calculate (the present value of) your total profit over the two time periods.


2.  In this context, the Lagrangean multiplier R = [Pt - C]/(1+r)t  represents the present value of the marginal profit (Pt - C) the owner gets from selling an extra unit of the resource in any time period t.   The economist Harold Hotelling observed that in competitive markets for depletable resources, the marginal profit tends to rise at the rate of discount over time.   Explain why this is likely to happen. 


3.  Suppose the total stock of Q is 1,000 units, distributed among many sellers.  If the market for this resource follows Hotelling's rule, then the rent trajectory from today (t=0) to some future time of depletion (t=T) looks like...
      P0 - C  =  [P1 - C]/(1+r)  =  [P2 - C]/(1+r)=  ...  =  [PT-1 - C]/(1+r)T-1  =  [PT - C]/(1+r)T

If the demand is Pt = 20 - 0.2Qt, C = $5 and r = 0.10, then in the final time period, at the point of depletion when QT = 0 and PT = $20, the marginal profit will be $20 - $5 = $15.   If the market follows Hotelling's rule, then the marginal profit in the previous period T-1 should be [PT-1 - $5] = $15/(1.10) from which you can solve for PT-1 (= $18.64) and obtain QT-1 from the demand schedule (= 6.818 units).  And in the next previous period T-2 the marginal profit will be [PT-2 - $5] = $15/(1.10)2 from which you can solve for PT-2 (= $17.40) and obtain QT-2 (= 19.835 units).  And so on....

In the first column of a spreadsheet, calculate this rent trajectory backwards from $15 in terminal time period T toward the present.  In the adjacent columns, calculate the corresponding Pt and Qt values.  In the fourth column, calculate the cumulative stock of Q required to supply QT + QT-1 + QT-2 + ...  from that time period up to time T.  Work your way down the rows of the spreadsheet (backward in time) until cumulative stock requirement most closely matches today's total stock of 1,000--this row represents "today."   What is today's marginal profit, P and Q?  If you denote this row as time period 0, how many years off is time period T?  Create an XY graph of the price and marginal profit trajectories through time. 


4.  Suppose there is a new discovery of 500 additional units of the resource.  Work your way further down the spreadsheet until the cumulative stock requirement most closely matches a stock of 1,500 units.  What happens to "today's" marginal profit, P and Q?  How many years off is time period T now?