International Education Matters

A Forum for Issues Pertaining to
Intensive English Programs

International Student Enrollments: The Slippery Side of Statistics

Since 9/11, many educators have expressed grave concern over the potentially devastating impact on international student exchanges resulting from wave after wave of measures taken by Congress, the Department of Homeland Security, and the Department of State to “protect our borders.” The first salvo was fired shortly after 9/11 by Senator Feinstein, who threatened to place a moratorium on the entire student visa program after reports surfaced that one of the hijackers may have entered the country on a student visa. Never mind the fact that 18 of the 19 terrorists slipped into the country through other means (largely through the tourist visa system) or that educational exchanges do more to advance American diplomacy and to spread democracy than any other governmental initiative; international students quickly became the easy target of choice by the government and media alike.

Seemingly every month brought new, more formidable barriers to legitimate students wishing to enter our country. The passage of the Patriot Act ushered in restricted access to visas, established the computerized student tracking system known as “SEVIS,” and paved the way for the creation of the Department of Homeland Security. The number of visa denials dramatically increased, and long delays for visa processing became the norm when interviews were made mandatory for all applicants. Elaborate airport security checks were further intensified last week when retina scanning and fingerprinting were mandated for all individuals entering the US for the first time. Against this backdrop of fortress America, prospective foreign applicants to US universities read terrifying accounts of international students being handcuffed and detained in INS (now known as BICE) raids or of students in the last year of their graduate programs returning home for a wedding or a funeral, only to be denied re-entry to the US. Little wonder that tens of thousands of international students have changed their minds about coming to America and, instead, chosen to earn their degrees or learn their English in New Zealand, Australia, Canada, and Great Britain—countries that have taken steps to make international students feel welcome and streamline the visa application process.

Yet despite this gloomy background comes a widely published report from the Institute for International Education (IIE) suggesting that all, in fact, is well within international education, that the number of international students in the US actually increased last year by a modest 1% to 586,323. This statistic would indeed be welcome news—except that it doesn’t square with one basic fact: the US State Department issued nearly 80,000 fewer student visas in the 2003 academic year than it did in 2001—a 27 percent decline (214,331 for 2003 vs. 293,357 for 2001). Moreover, over two years after the initial shock of 9/11, the number of visas being issued has not only not recovered, but in fact continues to decline: 234,322 visas for 2002, compared to the 214,331 figure for the year just ending. And just to be clear: international students cannot enter the US without an approved student visa in hand.

So how do we reconcile the difference between IIE’s reported increase and the State Department’s absolutely accurate figures to the contrary? There are two likely explanations. IIE’s statistics are derived from a self-reported survey completed by universities admitting foreign students. IIE cannot control for the accuracy of the information reported or of the methods used by universities to collect and calculate their own data. More importantly, the 586,323 count is an aggregate figure based on the total number of universities reporting. If more universities report than in previous years, the final tally grows and calculations of “increases” or “decreases” necessarily become distorted.

This has clearly been the case for intensive English programs. For example, last year IIE initially reported strong enrollments for English language programs during a time in which professional organizations, such as the Consortium for University and College Intensive English Programs (UCIEP) and the American Association for Intensive English Programs (AAIEP), showed sharp declines in member organizations as high as 30% from summer 2002 to summer 2003. It turns out that UCIEP and AAIEP had done such a good job of urging its members to report enrollment data to IIE in order to bring the plight of the industry to the attention of the media and government agencies, that many more programs reported than in previous years, thereby artificially inflating IIE’s total enrollment data. (To its credit, IIE issued an amended report on English program enrollment, reflecting steep enrollment declines.) A similar trend is no doubt happening at the university degree level, where institutions that might not have completed the survey in previous years were now concerned enough about the potential impact of new regulations on foreign student applicants to make sure the data became public.

There is likely another factor affecting IIE’s robust enrollment report, i.e., foreign students afraid to return home are finding ways of extending their stay in the US by enrolling in additional graduate or professional training programs. Currently enrolled foreign students are so familiar with documented as well as anecdotal evidence of high visa denial rates, that they fear they might not ever have a legitimate chance to pursue further education in the States again, and so they are taking advantage of the time they do have while still here by extending their stays to pursue additional degrees. Call it the “hanging on” effect. That’s good news for U.S universities in the short term, but eventually funding and degree options will end, and those students will need to return home. Given the 27% drop in the number of student visas currently being issued, it’s clear the brief enrollment bubble reported by IIE is about to pop.

Intensive English programs (IEPs) may prove to be the canary in the coal mine—their precipitous declines in enrollment being a portent of financial crisis for the hundreds of US universities that rely heavily on foreign students to fill their classrooms. Universities and colleges rely heavily on IEPs, whose students apply for advanced degrees once they have completed their language studies. With 80,000 fewer students coming through our ports of entry and perhaps another ten thousand fewer emerging from the doors of IEPs, the outlook for higher education is a sobering one.

In fact, recent reports from a number of graduate school offices and the Educational Testing Service (ETS) indicate that the bubble has already burst on foreign student enrollments. David Payne, Associate Vice President for the Higher Education Division of ETS, revealed a precipitous drop in the number of international students registering for the Graduate Record Exam (GRE) this year. If the trend continues, ETS predicts the decline of GRE test applications to reach 50% for Chinese, 43% for Taiwanese, and 37% for Indians in 2004, compared with a year ago. Fewer GRE test takers necessarily translate into fewer graduate school applications. And, indeed, that is exactly what is happening. Duke University, Georgetown University, the University of Texas at Arlington, Ohio State University (in fact, virtually all Big Ten universities, for that matter) each have experienced steep drops in international graduate student applications ranging from 20-50%. Reports from other universities are likely to be filled with similar bleak statistics.

Far from growing complacent from reading misleading enrollment statistics, educators must act now to persuade Congress and the administration to adopt a more welcoming stance toward foreign students—before it’s too late.

This file was updated on February 17, 2004