UpDate - Vol. 14, No. 6, Page 7
October 6, 1994
New Zealand professor studies climate extremes

     It's a bright sunny day outside, but inside Pearson Hall, William
John Maunder dons a sweater in the cool of air conditioning.
     It's an ironic setting for a distinguished visiting professor
from New Zealand, in Newark to study climate extremes.
     During his stay, Maunder, who is president of the World
Meteorological Organization's Commission for Climatology, worked for
several months late this summer with Larry Kalkstein, professor of
geography, on an Environmental Protection Agency-funded project,
"Climate Extremes and Human Health."
     The project looks specifically at mortality rates during
temperature extremes-especially heat waves in large cities.
     "We look at heat and humidity coupled with general living
conditions to study what causes death in heat waves," Maunder said.
"Politics comes into play when we look at such things as, say, housing
conditions. What happens, for instance, if you live in the city, in a
large brick apartment building with a small amount of money and three
children and your air conditioning breaks down? How do you fix it?
     "We also look at near-death situations and how people feel under
very hot conditions," he said.
     This was Maunder's third visit to the geography department.
     Maunder began his career as a weather forecaster for the New
Zealand and later the Canadian Meteorological Service.
     In the 1970s and '80s he returned to the Southern Hemisphere to
work for the New Zealand Meteorological Service, eventually he ended
up spending five years as the assistant director.
     He has published four books, including The Value of the Weather,
which was among the first books to look at the economic winners and
losers in any given weather situation.
     His weather and economy theme continues in two other books, The
Uncertainty Business: Risks and Opportunities in Weather and Climate
and The Human Impact of Climate Uncertainty: Weather Information,
Economic Planning and Business Management.
     His most recent work is the Dictionary of Global Climate Change,
a lexicon of climate-related words defined in media, rather than
academic terms. Originally published in 1992, the book is due for a
second edition at the end of this year and will contain more than 300
new terms.
     Another project in which Maunder is involved for the World
Meteorological Organization is the Heritage Climate Data Collection,
which would urge countries to consider the importance of preserving
and archiving historical climate data.
     He also is involved in a project to make seasonal and longer
climate forecasts available.
     "This sort of forecast, for example, would say in general terms
what the next winter would be like. The U.S. National Weather Service,
for example, is proposing to make seasonal weather forecasts available
in 12-, nine-, six- and three-month predictions.
     "It is important to determine who would use such information and
who would have access to it. Should market forecasters use it? Should
the government get it? Should it be on the front page of The New York
Times? What happens if only the government has access to this
information? There are many interesting questions."
     The questions, he said, are somewhat similar to the ones raised
years ago when cloud seeding first came into use and it became
possible, to some extent, to modify the weather.
     "The socioeconomic questions are fascinating," Maunder said. "Who
should be allowed to modify the weather? Do you have a local weather
modifier? Does the local cherry grower who needs rain have the right
to seed the clouds? "
     In the case of long-range weather forecasts, Maunder said, "It is
clear that the potential exists for seasonal climate forecasts to
actually make a difference and change the way that things will be done
in the future."
                                                          -Beth Thomas