UpDate - Vol. 12, No. 9, Page 2                        
October 29, 1992                                       
Student poll may predict election winners              
                                                       
     Bill Clinton, Mike Castle and Tom Carper would all be winners if
next week's election had been held in mid-October, according to a 
telephone poll conducted Oct. 15-20 by more than 1,000 middle and high
school students throughout Delaware.                         
     Approximately 2,500 likely voters throughout the First State were
surveyed using a random-digit dialing procedure.             
     The poll was sponsored by the University of Delaware Department
of Mathematical Sciences and the Mathematical Sciences Teaching and
Learning Center and the Delaware Chapter of the American Statistical
Association. Thirty-five teachers in public and private schools
throughout the state participated.                           
     According to the survey's preliminary results:          
                                                             
                                                       
        * In the presidential race, 42.7 percent prefer Clinton/Gore;
          26.4 percent prefer Bush/Quayle; 12 percent prefer Perot;
          3.1 percent said "other"; and 15.9 percent responded, "don't
          know";                                             
        * In the Delaware race for Congress, 53.5 percent prefer Mike
          Castle; 32.4 percent prefer S.B. Woo; 1.9 percent said
          "other"; and 12 percent said, "don't know";        
        * In the race for Delaware governor, 57.3 percent prefer Tom
          Carper; 26.7 percent prefer B. Gary Scott; 1.5 percent
          prefer "other"; and 14.5 percent said, "don't know";
        * For Delaware lieutenant governor, 44.7 percent prefer Ruth
          Ann Minner; 26.6 percent prefer Phil Cloutier; 1.6 percent
          prefer "other; and 26.9 percent said, "don't know"; and 
        * For insurance commisioner, 34.8 percent prefer Donna Lee
          Williams; 24.1 percent prefer Jim Robb; 2.7 percent prefer
          "other"; and 38 percent said, "don't know."        
                                                       
     Of those polled, 77.6 percent said they definitely will vote in
the election; 20.5 percent said they probably will; 1.1 percent said
they probably will not; and .8 percent said they definitely will not.
     Asked the most important national issue in the election, 76.2
percent selected economy/jobs; 10.8 percent said education; 5 percent
picked environment; 4.2 percent said abortion; and 3.8 percent chose
foreign affairs.                                             
     Those responding to the survey were 80.3 percent white; 13.9 
percent Afro-American; 2 percent Asian; 2.4 percent Hispanic; and 1.3
percent other. The age group from 25-44 made up 45.5 percent of the
group; 23.1 percent were 55 and over; 18.8 percent were from  45 to
54; and 12.7 percent were from 18 to 24. Party affiliations were 36.2
percent Democrat, 29.4 percent Republican, 31 percent independent and
3.3 percent other. Women made up 58.8 percent of the survey, with men
respondents totaling 41.1 percent.                           
     There is a sampling error of plus or minus 2 percent.
     Designed to teach students about the purpose and use of 
statistics, the project was coordinated by John Schuenemeyer,
professor of mathematical sciences, and Kathleen Hollowell,  
coordinator in the Mathematical Sciences Teaching and Learning
Center.