Vol. 19, No. 18

Feb. 3, 2000

Groundhog predicts six more
weeks of winter weather

Roly-poly groundhogs are generally known for their persistence and ingenuity in overcoming obstacles to devour carefully tended vegetable gardens. And, each year at this time, they’re also honored as weather prognosticators. Yesterday, on Groundhog Day, the country’s most famous groundhog– Punxsutawney Phil–had his moment in the sun, when he emerged from his glass-enclosed home at the Punxsutawney (Pa.) Memorial Library before a crowd of thousands. Alas, he saw his shadow, predicting six more weeks of winter weather. Shadow or no shadow, state climatologist Dan Leathers, geography, says it’s is a pretty good bet on Feb. 2 that winter will be here for six more weeks. But the groundhog’s prediction is about as good as the National Weather Service’s seasonal forecast, he said, which is based on statistical probability and not known for its accuracy. That prediction calls for a normal February, March and April: temperatures on the rise and 3-1/2 inches of precipitation per month. February’s forecast for the next 10 days to two weeks is more accurate and is based on computer models of the atmosphere, Leathers said. Expect slightly colder than normal temperatures and the chance of slightly above normal precipitation, according to the forecast. Looking back, Leathers said January was a flipflop month. In early January, people were wearing shorts in above-normal temperatures, but during the last two weeks, the temperature dropped to well below normal. Bottom line? The average temperature for January was normal, he said. –Sue Moncure