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Heavily populated U.S. coastal regions are vulnerable to natural hazards like Hurricane Isabel

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration satellite image of Hurricane Isabel taken at 10:15 a.m., Sept. 16.
6:45 p.m., Sept. 17, 2003--As Hurricane Isabel approaches the East Coast, the University’s Disaster Research Center (DRC) is considering deploying teams of researchers to areas in the hurricane’s path. DRC, the first social science research center in the world devoted to the study of disasters, conducts field and survey research on group, organizational and community preparation for, response to and recovery from natural and technological disasters and other community-wide crises. DRC researchers have carried out systematic studies on the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks, hurricanes, floods, earthquakes, tornadoes, hazardous chemical incidents and plane crashes.

Havidán Rodríquez, recently joined DRC as its director. He came from the University of Puerto Rico-Mayagüez Center for Applied Social Research, where he studied the socioeconomic and demographic impact of hurricanes.

Q: What and when was the last disastrous hurricane to hit the East Coast? Did people, emergency preparedness organizations and government officials respond adequately, and are all more or less prepared now?

A: The most recent major hurricanes to hit the East Coast were Hugo in 1989, a Category 4, following a path similar to Isabel’s and significantly affecting Puerto Rico and South Carolina; hurricane Fran in 1996, classified as Category 3, significantly impacting North Carolina; and finally, hurricane Floyd, in 1999, affecting the mid-Atlantic region and the northeastern United States, producing a significant amount of rainfall and, consequently, floods which affected many communities.

How government officials and the general public have responded to these hurricanes has varied significantly throughout the past decade. As time progresses and with a greater emphasis on disaster mitigation and preparedness, emergency management agencies and the general public are responding more adequately. Nevertheless, in general, as a consequence of changing demographic patterns, increasing migration streams and urban settlements combined with the increasing construction of housing, condominiums and hotels in the coastal regions of the United States, the population has become more vulnerable to natural hazards such as Hurricane Isabel. There need to be more direct and proactive initiatives aimed at disaster mitigation and preparedness.

Q: It has been years since the East Coast has lived through a
potentially disastrous hurricane and there have been many instances where weather authorities have issued warnings, people have prepared and there was no hurricane. From your research, might there be many people who won't take these warnings seriously?

A: Human behavior is dynamic, diverse and depends on a multitude of demographic, socioeconomic, cultural and psychological factors. We know that people respond to these types of warnings if they perceive that there is a serious threat to themselves, their families and property—that is, if they perceive that they are at a high risk of being impacted and their lives and/or their loved ones are imperiled.

Other factors that will impact if, how, and when individuals respond to these warnings are how credible are the sources that are providing information, the role that government agencies play in this process and the types of messages and frequency with which the population receives those messages. The mass media is our primary source of information; therefore, the mass media has an extremely important role in providing up-to-date, reliable and accurate information that will allow individuals to take informed and responsible decisions in order to protect their loved ones and their property.

Q: No one is certain that Isabel will hit the coast, or if it does, if
it will lose or gain in intensity. How does this uncertainty affect the way individuals prepare, the way officials make decisions and the effect that the hurricane will have on people's perception of danger and confidence in the warning system?

A: Fortunately, Isabel has been downgraded from a Category 5 to a to a Category 2 hurricane. Unfortunately, it is still a very strong hurricane with maximum sustained winds of up to 110 miles per hour. A variety of environmental factors may impact the direction and strength of this hurricane. However, the hurricane trajectory at this point leads us to believe that a direct hit to the United States is highly probable. Although we still have to keep observing this potentially destructive hurricane, Isabel is projected to hit the North Carolina coastline and will continue to move north to Pennsylvania and New York. Please bear in mind that the populations in these regions, particularly the latter two, have very little or no experience dealing with these types of events. Therefore, government agencies and emergency management agencies are responding as this hurricane's trajectory dictates; they are preparing their populations for the worst-case scenario. At this point we cannot assume that the hurricane may "turn around" and will "not impact us;" that would be a recipe for a major disaster.

Q: Has your research shown that people react better in future disasters if authorities predict a disaster and it happens or predict a disaster and it doesn't happen?

A: Well, the reliability of the sources from which people obtain their
information will definitely impact the population's preparedness and response to an event such as Isabel. The reliability and accuracy of weather forecasts and the mass media, in general, may significantly impact an individual's behavior and response to natural and other types of hazards. However, please remember that improving weather forecasts and increasing lead times is only part of the equation in determining the population's preparedness and response to natural hazards. Demographic, social and economic factors are also important components in determining human behavior in these situations. We need to continue to explore these areas in order to provide a better understanding of warnings and individual behavior and response.

Of course, in the meantime, we must continue to work to educate the population at large, emergency management personnel and the mass media in order to better prepare and respond to the impending dangers of natural hazards. Only in this way will we able to minimize the loss of life and property.

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