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1:55 p.m., April 29, 2003--Marvin Cetron, a nationally known futurist, spoke about the impact terrorism, war, a weak economy and Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) virus have had on the hospitality industry in his presentation “Terrorism and Tourism” on Wednesday, April 23, in Gore Hall.
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| Futurist Marvin Cetron: “The economy is like an 800-pound gorilla. When it is down, hospitality is one of the first sectors to be hit.” |
His presentation focused on the need to recognize the effects of international events on key sectors of the economy, technology, business and society, and the role of these forces will play in the specific regions, industries and organizations to anticipate where they will lead.
In 1994, the Pentagon’s Office of Special Operations and Low-Intensity Conflict chose Cetron to head a study on the future of terrorism. The study, “Terror 2000: The Future Face of Terror,” is a result of the combined efforts of more than 100 of the world’s leading forecasters and experts in the field of terrorism. “In all, almost 95 percent of our projections have proved correct,” Cetron said.
The study predicted the rise of a new brand of terrorism, one that would be carried out by religious or ethnic fanatics, rather than by governments, Cetron said. The study’s forecasts included the prediction of a bombing in mid-America by Americans with a grudge against the government, an attack on the World Trade Center by Muslim militants and even the possibility that a hijacked plane could easily target the Pentagon or the White House.
Cetron said the study also predicted that New York, Washington and Las Vegas would be the three major U.S. targets of terrorism—New York and Washington because of their economic and political significance, and Las Vegas because of its reputation as “sin city.”
“Unfortunately, the study was not published because the State Department did not want to unnecessarily scare people, especially if there was nothing they could do about the threats,” Cetron said.
In the spring 2003 issue of the “HSMAI Marketing Review,” Cetron said he has identified 10 major trends that are critical to the future of the hospitality industry.
“These trends and other events merit attention from the hospitality industry leaders, because your industry will be one of the hardest hit, and you must prepare for what lies ahead,” Cetron said.
Cetron said the 9/11 terrorist attacks in New York and Washington had devastating effects on the economy and tourism.
“The economy is like an 800-pound gorilla. When it is down, hospitality is one of the first sectors to be hit,” Cetron said. After Sept. 11, 2001, the economy stalled and fear of further terrorist acts sent travel and tourism into a nosedive, reducing occupancy rates at hotels in New York City to around 40 percent. Even usually recession-proof destinations like Washington, Orlando and Las Vegas saw sharp and lasting declines in business and leisure travel.
Cetron said the war in Iraq and the SARS virus once again have jolted the hospitality industry. Tourism in the Middle East has declined sharply, as has travel to Europe, especially in France and Germany. As a result, hotel occupancy rates in Europe are down by 25 percent, Cetron said, while hotels in major American port cities, like New York, San Francisco and Miami, also are seeing steep declines.
“The situation is even worse in Asia, where fear of SARS has brought travel almost to a halt,” Cetron said. “Only 10 percent of the hotels rooms in Hong Kong are filled, and air travel to Hong Kong is down 90 percent.”
Cetron concluded his presentation with a glimmer of hope. “The outlook for the world’s hospitality industry is much brighter that this grim present.” However, hospitality industry leaders must be aware of the obstacles they face, he said, and be ready to respond to ongoing changes and adopt needed changes.
President of Forecasting International Ltd., Cetron has written three dozen books and serves on the advisory board of UD’s Department of Hotel, Restaurant and Institutional Management. Cetron has a bachelor’s degree in industrial engineering from Pennsylvania State University, a master’s degree in production management from Columbia University and a doctorate in research and development management from American University.
Article by Amanda Goss, AS 2003
Photo by Kathy Atkinson
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