UD prof says election models suggest Bush will win

President George Bush is likely to be re-elected in November with 54 percent of the vote, Joseph Pika, professor of political science and international relations, told UD’s Bach’s Lunch Series audience, Wednesday, Oct. 6.

Pika spoke, at the first lecture of the fall series, on the 2004 presidential election, revealing the results of six of seven election outcome models designed by various political scientists and made public Oct. 5. The seventh model deemed the race too close to call.

Pika, who studies the presidency and presidential elections, said that all six election outcome models forecast a Bush victory with anywhere from 51-58 percent of the vote.

Recent events have had a bearing on this election, Pika said. “Politicians are a lot like generals, they learn from their most recent engagement.” In 2000, there were 15 to 20 states where the results were close. That dropped to 13—equaling 113 electoral votes—after the first debate, he said. The candidates have been targeting those states, he said, especially Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Mexico, West Virginia, Ohio, Wisconsin, Minnesota, New Hampshire and Pennsylvania. Bush has visited Pennsylvania 36 times since he took office, and Kerry makes frequent campaign stops in Ohio, New Hampshire, Nevada and West Virginia, he said.

An event that greatly affected the Bush candidacy was the terrorist attack on Sept. 11, 2001, Pika said. “In the impact of that event, George Bush’s performance established an emotional link with the electorate that remains today.” Pika said before 9/11, Bush’s legitimacy was in question because of the tainted 2000 election. But, after 9/11, Bush’s approval ratings soared to 91 percent, “unheard of” in the history of political polls, he said.

“Where do things stand today?” Pika asked.

Bush is ahead in 24 states with a presumed 208 electoral votes, 62 short of the 274 needed to win. Kerry is ahead in 12 states with a presumed 168 electoral votes, but four more states are leaning his way: Maine with four votes, Michigan with 17, Oregon with seven and Washington with 11, bringing his total to 207. “It’s a deadlocked Electoral College with 113 electoral votes still in play.”

To win those votes, Pika said, the candidates have waged “the most expensive presidential campaigns in history. In 2004, Bush and Kerry each raised approximately $250 million, despite the fact that we had campaign finance reform.” In addition to that, the Democratic and Republican parties have spent $60 million for campaign ads, Pika said.

He said campaigning during the summer did virtually nothing to change the candidates’ momentum. Kerry got almost no “bounce” in the polls from the Democratic National Convention, which concentrated on Kerry’s military background and leadership abilities and maintained a positive outlook shying away from attacking Bush.

The Republicans, on the other hand, held their convention in the beginning of September “as close to 9/11 as possible,” and went all out in attacking Kerry as inconsistent and soft on national security issues. They managed to make their convention a referendum on John Kerry, not on the president’s record for four years, Pika said. It defined the agenda for September, he said.

Kerry gained some momentum after the first debate, he said. The debate had 60-65 million viewers, and it was the first time that many Americans had a chance to gain an impression of Kerry that wasn’t affected by the Bush campaign.

As it stands now, Pika said, only 5 to 10 percent of the public is still undecided.

He said women are not supporting Kerry the way they did Democrat Al Gore in 2000, and the real unknown block, newly registered voters, are “completely unpredictable.”

A bright spot for Kerry is that the next two debates could help refocus the campaign onto domestic issues such as the economy, health care and jobs, he said.

Even if the remaining two debates and a worsening situation in Iraq do help Kerry, absentee balloting begins two weeks before Nov. 2, so, it’s doubtful Democrats can count on any new developments to improve their prospects, Pika said.

In the wake of the presidential debate Thursday, Sept. 30, the polls showed a deeply divided electorate, with two calling Bush the winner, one favoring Democrat John Kerry and two deeming it a dead heat.

Both the Democrats and Republicans have enlisted thousands of election attorneys nationwide to prepare for challenges in states expected to be extremely close, including Florida, where Gore lost by just over 500 votes, and New Mexico, where he lost by 400. We can expect a repeat of disputes like those after the 2000 election, Pika said.

Next in the Bach’s Lunch Series is a program on “The Making of a Music Video,” beginning at 12:10 p.m., Wednesday, Oct. 13.

Contact: Barbara Garrison, (302) 831-1964
October 8, 2004