Modeling Natural Disaster Risk Management: A Stakeholder Perspective
Principal Investigator: Rachel Davidson
Natural disasters are a significant and growing national challenge. This project involves developing risk and game theoretic optimization models to support design of a regional natural disaster risk management system that is effective, efficient, sustainable, equitable, and that is appealing to each of the key stakeholders, so that it will be implementable. The modeling will be novel in: (1) using sophisticated large-scale game theory optimization to model regional natural disaster risk management; (2) incorporating realistic representations of regional risk and mitigation options; (3) explicitly considering the differing objectives, constraints, and alternatives of each of the key stakeholders (e.g., building owners, insurers, government); (4) recognizing the biases people and organizations have in making disaster risk decisions; (5) allowing decisions and investments to be made over time; and (6) representing the large uncertainty in disaster losses. The new models will be demonstrated through case studies focusing on earthquake risk in Los Angeles and hurricane risk in North Carolina. Successful completion of the project will provide tools to help address the increasingly severe problem of natural disaster risk, a topic of major national concern.