Delaware Chapter, ASA

Dinner Meeting: September 2006

Notice: Oliver's Restaurant and the Holiday Inn will close after this September meeting. Our next meetings will be at the Blue and Gold Club on the University of Delaware campus. For details see --
   ASA-FALL Program.pdf

Speaker: Dennis E. Sweitzer
Astra Zeneca
Title: Signs of the Timings: Predicting Time of Completion in Multiphase Survival Trials


Studying maintenance of clinical effect typically requires clinical response for a minimum amount of time on treatment before randomization. If randomized, patients are then followed until treatment failure or withdrawal, and the trial halted after a pre-specified number of events. For ethical and cost reasons it is desirable to minimize the number of patients enrolled and randomized, and to predict the time of the last event under multiple scenarios.

We describe a data-driven stochastic simulation for two such trials in which: Each phase is modeled as a competing event process; Distributions of event times are derived from Kaplan-Meier survival curves from available data; Parameter uncertainty is modeled based on K-M survival estimates; Withdrawals and events occur at similar overall rates, though at different times; Predictions are updated as information is accrued.

Date: Thursday, September 21, 2006

Social hour -- 6:00 pm
Dinner -- 6:30 pm
Speaker -- 7:15 pm

Newark Holiday Inn
Oliver's Restaurant map

Entree: Chicken Marsala, OR
Broiled Filet of Flounder



$25 for members, $15 for students ($5 for talk only)



Bruce Stanley by Wednesday, September 20, 2006.
Phone: 302-366-5910
Email: Bruce Stanley.

Please indicate your entree choice in your RSVP. Also, if you desire a vegetarian meal, please indicate that in your RSVP.

Please note: Be sure to RSVP by this date, to assure a meal is reserved for you.

Future meetings will be at the Blue and Gold Club on the University of Delaware campus. The following is a list of the dates of future meetings in 2006 (third Thursday of month from 6 - 10 pm):
October 19, 2006
November 9, 2006
December 21, 2006
Return to Delaware Chapter ASA home page.