Delaware Chapter, ASA
Dinner Meeting: September 2006
Dennis E. Sweitzer|
Signs of the Timings: Predicting Time of Completion in
Multiphase Survival Trials
Studying maintenance of clinical effect typically requires clinical
response for a minimum amount of time on treatment before
randomization. If randomized, patients are then followed until
treatment failure or withdrawal, and the trial halted after a
pre-specified number of events. For ethical and cost reasons it is
desirable to minimize the number of patients enrolled and randomized,
and to predict the time of the last event under multiple scenarios.
We describe a data-driven stochastic simulation for two such trials in
which: Each phase is modeled as a competing event process;
Distributions of event times are derived from Kaplan-Meier survival
curves from available data; Parameter uncertainty is modeled based on
K-M survival estimates; Withdrawals and events occur at similar overall
rates, though at different times; Predictions are updated as
information is accrued.
Future meetings will be at the Blue and Gold Club on the University of
Delaware campus. The following is a list of the dates of future
meetings in 2006 (third Thursday of month from 6 - 10 pm):
||Thursday, September 21, 2006 |
||Social hour -- 6:00 pm|
Dinner -- 6:30 pm
Speaker -- 7:15 pm
||Newark Holiday Inn|
|| Chicken Marsala, OR
Broiled Filet of Flounder
||$25 for members, $15 for students
($5 for talk only)
|Bruce Stanley by Wednesday,
September 20, 2006.|
Please indicate your entree choice in your RSVP. Also, if you
desire a vegetarian meal, please indicate that in your RSVP.
Please note: Be sure to RSVP by this date, to assure
a meal is reserved for you.
October 19, 2006
Return to Delaware Chapter ASA home page.
November 9, 2006
December 21, 2006